Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (WAB): Meeting Highlights; Introducing Dec 27 PT at $320

Last week we hosted investor meetings in San Francisco with WAB's EVP & CFO, John Olin, and VP of IR, Kyra Yates. In our view, the near-term setup for WAB is increasingly positive, as the rail industry is likely gaining share from trucks amid diesel price inflation and an ongoing truck driver shortage. Longer term, WAB is well on track to reach its 2029 targets, but this could speed up should North American locomotive demand accelerate in the coming quarters due to an improvement in rail freight volumes. Looking to 2027, given the YTD 12-month backlog is up >6% and NA railcar demand is forecast to grow, we see a path for WAB to deliver HSD%+ organic revenue growth. We are modeling 2027 revenue of $13.5B and EBITDA of $3.7B (at 27.3% margin), leading to EPS of $12.63 (up 16% YoY) vs. consensus at $12.44. We are introducing 2028 estimates with revenue of $14.6B and EBITDA of $4.1B (at 27.9% margin), leading to EPS of $14.39 (up 14% YoY) vs. consensus at $14.08. Our Dec 27 PT is $320 base