Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc (CBRL.US): Turnaround Gaining Traction, Focus on Further Recovery

For CBRL's F4Q results, UBS expects improving sss trends continued through the quarter and into F1Q, reflecting a likely further traffic recovery driven by execution of strategic initiatives. With F4Q results already preannounced through the first 11 weeks (including restaurant sss down ~2.5% and retail sss down ~0.5%), focus is likely on initial FY27 guidance, updates on sales & margin turnaround initiatives, and commentary from new CEO David Deno. Investor expectations include accelerating F1QTD restaurant sss in the ~3-4% range, with FY27 guidance for adj EBITDA of ~$160-200MM (Consensus $181MM). Recent strategic actions include the sale-leaseback of 26 co-owned locations (~$77MM net proceeds earmarked for debt reduction) and the divestiture of Maple Street Biscuit Company (expected non-cash charges of ~$37-39MM in F4Q). UBS models 5.0% F4Q adj EBITDA margins (down 140bps y/y) and ~$180MM FY27 adj EBITDA. While recent sales trends suggest turnaround efforts are gaining traction, UBS