TSMC CoWoS support eases MediaTek's 2028 TPU production concerns; OW

Current debate: Can MediaTek meet Street 2028 forecasts given Intel EMIB-T supply issue? Intel's EMIB-T substrate supply has been a potential bottleneck for future TPU v9 ("Humufish") shipments in 2028, making some investors reluctant to own MediaTek. We forecast 3mn TPU v9 units; however, we expect only 2mn EMIB-T substrates, i.e. 40-45k wafer-equivalent EMIB-T capacity in 2028. Our recent industry checks suggest TSMC CoWoS would continue to support both 3nm (Zebrafish) and 2nm (Humufish) MediaTek TPU in 2028, and we now assume around 500k units of 2nm TPU going through CoWoS production as a second source. Assuming TSMC CoWoS-L can support 0.5mn TPU v9 units and EMIB-T can support 2.5mn units, our 3mn-unit target for 2028 appears highly achievable, with a higher ASP from the CoWoS version. Google is willing to pay these incremental costs to secure dual sourcing, which should help MediaTek sustain its gross margin. We raise our MediaTek 2028 TPU revenue assumption to US$51.5bn and 2028