CSL Ltd. (CSL.AX): Spotlight on commercial execution opportunity for IG share; Buy

We retain our Buy rating on CSL Ltd. (CSL.AX) with a 12-month price target of A$182.50, implying 3.1% upside versus the A$176.95 share price. In assessing CSL's immunoglobulin (IG) outlook, we performed a deep dive on changes in the US specialty pharmacy industry and the company's levers to grow its market share, in collaboration with our US Healthcare Services team. This work highlights an IG industry likely to undergo a further shift towards the pharmacy benefits channel. For CSL, this represents an opportunity to broaden specialty pharmacy access and complements initiatives in the medical benefits channel including through GPO contracts. The key enabler is CSL's materially improved CPL. We lift our FY27/28 IG forecast (+1%/+2%) and anticipate the pace of share gains will be modest to protect industry rationality. EPS revisions of +1%/+0.2% in FY27/FY28E, with TP +12%. On Behring GM%, savings from the transformation program in FY27 are a key driver in mitigating soft albumin revenue;