3Q-26 Earnings Preview: The Hurdle Has Moved Higher

Goldman Sachs Europe Weekly Kickstart previews 3Q-26 earnings. The earnings season kicks off in two weeks; by end-November roughly 75% of tracked companies (~70% of STOXX 600 market cap) will have reported. Consensus expects 22% y/y EPS growth in H2-26 (15% ex-Commodities), or over 25% for Q3 alone, largely driven by commodity producers and base effects, with the median company delivering ~10% y/y growth. 2026 EPS estimates have been revised up ~4% since the start of Q3, led by Energy, with Technology and Industrials also seeing upward revisions on the ongoing AI and capex cycle. Euro area composite PMI rose to a 41-month high of 53.1. Long-end yields have risen sharply, supporting Banks, Financials and Commodities. Energy drives upside with Brent above $100/bbl and Q3 TTF gas prices ~40% above Q2. Key risks: a potential margin squeeze (Autos, Chemicals and parts of Industrials most exposed) and consumer weakness. Despite the high bar, positive revision momentum, resilient growth and c