全球金融条件收紧，令天平偏向做多美国与德国久期。欧洲主权信用利差（尤其法国OAT）大幅走阔，勾勒出近期债市抛售的边界条件。疲软的美国就业数据为美债收益率提供初步支撑，而G4国债的上涨主要源于欧洲风险回归——OAT领涨的欧洲主权信用利差急剧走阔推动德债收益率下行，G4前端加息溢价随美联储、欧央行偏鸽措辞下降，美联储下次（亦为最后一次）加息的预期时点被推迟至12月。10年期OAT-德债利差一度突破150bp，为2011年欧债危机以来最阔，已显著超出基本面。欧洲主权风险回归或降低欧央行短期紧缩风险，但动用资产负债表（含TPI）稳定利差的门槛较高；除非能源价格回落压低利率波动，否则政策干预预期将继续维持。我们维持看多德债，维持2026年底10年期德债收益率3.25%的预测。英债近期相对优异表现有望延续，日本掉期利差中期趋紧压力上升。市场仍预期加拿大央行进一步下调前端风险溢价。
Financial conditions tightening is tilting the scales towards long US and German duration, with widening credit spreads - particularly in Europe - beginning to sketch out the boundary conditions for the recent sell-off. Softer labor market data provided initial support for US yields towards the end of the week, but the bulk of the rally in G4 sovereign bonds came from the return of European risk as European sovereign credit spreads widened sharply, led by OATs. This drove Bund yields lower and saw G4 front-ends reduce hike premium alongside dovish policy communication from the Fed and ECB. The key test for the Fed path will be the next inflation print, but we still think there is an asymmetry towards lower yields as fundamental support for duration builds. In Europe, tightening financial conditions due to wider sovereign credit spreads warrants the slower hike path priced into the front-end, but elevated energy prices continue to complicate the choices for the ECB. There may be a high