亚洲量化策略：历经动荡之后，年内剩余时间如何布局

It has been a weak start to Q4 2026 with the MXAPJ Index down 9% from its peak and the MXJP Index down 6%, led by strong macro and geopolitical headwinds. Valuations are now attractive across markets and first-half leaders, which could act as a catalyst for the next risk-on leg: Korea trades at 8.8x forward P/E, the lowest post-GFC level; China at 10.9x, close to 2024 lows; India at 17.3x versus a 16x long-term average; and Japan has de-rated to 14.7x, below average. While Taiwan's P/E is down 30% from its peak, it remains stretched on P/B, EV/EBITDA and dividend yield. Asia tech has de-rated 50% from its May peak of 36x forward P/E to 18x, and the momentum unwind pushed the factor to -1SD, with growth portfolios de-rating 60% from 55x to 21x by September. Earnings momentum is peaking for first-half winners such as Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand, while improving for laggards including India, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Hong Kong;