Woodside CMD 2026: Quality over quantity

Woodside held 2026 Capital Markets Day on 5th Nov with core growth projects remaining unchanged. Management focused on improving returns, strengthening shareholder distributions, and raising operational efficiency. We fine-tuned our forecast, rolled over our DCF valuation, and maintained our PT as AU$34.0. Core elements of the plan are to deliver >$40bn of adjusted operating cash flow during 2027-32 on a US$70/bbl real oil price, grow sales volumes by more than 30% to around 280MMboe by 2032, achieve a 12-15% portfolio ROACE by the mid-2030s, and improve margins through a $400m p.a. structural cost reduction program from 2028. Management also introduced a new capital framework under which all investment opportunities compete directly with shareholder distributions, while maintaining investment grade credit metrics through the cycle. Key changes include a stronger emphasis on capital returns rather than production growth, a new shareholder return framework of 20% of Adjusted Operating C