本报告为瑞银每周一页式多资产核心信念概览。报告指出，市场定价仍明显低于瑞银预期的货币紧缩路径（美联储12月再加息一次、欧央行12月一次、英央行11月与2月各一次），但鉴于能源前景不确定，不轻言利率见顶，偏好相对价值而非方向性久期交易，包括美国2年期远期2s10s陡峭化，并对通胀互换陡峭化获利了结；欧洲预计ESTR曲线进一步倒挂（2s10s目标-10bp），倾向收取SONIA 1y1y相对6m1y。股票方面，认为市场低估盈利增长的持续性，AI资本开支周期尚处早期，若美债收益率继续上行则看好NDX优于RTY，并看好金融与工业板块受益于AI资本开支周期。外汇新增五个交易思路：USDJPY、EURCHF、EURGBP、NOKSEK与XAUUSD。信用方面保持投资级/高收益与技术面稳健判断，但容错空间收窄，超配浮动利率信用、低配低质量信用。
Although market pricing remains well below the tightening we expect from the Fed (one further hike in December), ECB (one in December) and BoE (November and February), we are wary of calling the peak in rates given the uncertain energy outlook. We continue to favour relative-value over directional duration trades, including US 2y forward 2s10s steepeners, while taking profit on our inflation swap steepeners. In Europe, we expect further inversion of the ESTR curve (target: -10bp in 2s10s) and favour receiving SONIA 1y1y versus 6m1y on the view that tightening will be reversed relatively quickly. In equities, we believe the market is treating earnings growth as too transitory, although rising US yields have been a 5-7% headwind. If yields continue to rise, we prefer NDX over the RTY. We see Financials and Industrials benefiting from the AI capex cycle. In FX, we introduce five new trade ideas: USDJPY, EURCHF, EURGBP, NOKSEK and XAUUSD. Within EM, we believe Brazil local debt and equitie