ManpowerGroup Inc (MAN.US): Q3 Preview: Expect Some Upside in Q3, but More Cautious on Q4 Guide

We see a somewhat mixed setup into the Q3 print, with MAN likely to deliver some upside to consensus Q3 EPS, but possibly guide Q4 EPS below consensus at the midpoint. Positively, Q3 intraquarter datapoints have been encouraging especially in the U.S., which along with recent good operating expense control should drive continued operating momentum. We have raised our Q3 EPS estimate by $0.02 relative to our prior estimate and expect some upside versus the Street. Offsetting, our estimate for Q4 remains below consensus driven by lower revenue (we've calibrated for recent FX headwinds) and a sequentially flat EBIT margin profile (vs. the Street modelling expansion). This could result in the Q4 EPS guide midpoint coming in below the Street. Given that shares have done well YTD, this mixed setup may not be enough to keep shares going on the print. US Nowcast expects Q3 MAN US organic revenue of +5% yoy, better than the nowcast prediction of -2% for last quarter;