Bloom Energy Corporation: The demand signal is getting harder to ignore; Upgrade to Overweight

The demand signal is getting harder to ignore; Upgrade to Overweight. BE's accelerating capacity build, rising customer deposits and new supply commitments suggest demand is ramping faster than we previously expected, driving upside to our revenue outlook despite near-term FCF pressure. Barclays upgrades BE to Overweight with a PT of $289 as demand appears to be inflecting more sharply than we previously expected. Customer deposits increased from $78mm at YE25 to $661mm in 3Q26, including a ~$300mm sequential increase in 3Q alone. Assuming customers generally provide an upfront deposit of approximately 10% of contract value, the ~$300mm net increase alone could imply at least ~$3bn of underlying contract value, although some of the increase could represent milestone payments on previously signed contracts rather than new bookings. BE spent approximately $150mm of capex in 3Q, which suggests it may have added roughly 1 GW of incremental manufacturing capacity; it also signed a lease tha