Quick Take: FRVO - Five Takeaways from our CEO Webinar

Cape Station GeoBlock 1 hit commercial operations on its contractual date of October 1, 2026 — the largest near-term execution risk in the story, now behind Fervo. The first 33 MW passed capacity tests with only about half of the Phase 1 wells commissioned and without any supplementary water. From here, the debate moves from "does it work" toward three key questions: (1) how fast costs fall from about $5,500/kW toward the $3,000/kW target, (2) how much more capacity gets contracted, and (3) how the growth gets funded. Fervo has about 1,054 MW of binding PPAs including a 396 MW, 15-year Google agreement with an option for an additional 600 MW. Installed cost is about $5,500/kW, with megawatts per well the primary cost lever (Project Red 3 MW/well, Cape Phase 1 10 MW/well, Gen 3.0 15 MW/well). Water and thermal decline are treated as economic inputs, not deal breakers. Funding is IPO cash plus project debt, with equity optional. We are Outperform on FRVO with a price target of $47.