Chinese Autos: Accelerating Global Expansion — ASEAN opportunity amid Japan's stronghold

ASEAN is a key export market for Chinese automakers, offering strong growth potential and promising EV prospects. ASEAN light vehicle sales are forecast to grow from c.3.3mn units in 2025 to c.4.1mn by 2030E (c.5% CAGR). We forecast ASEAN EV sales volumes to triple to 1.4-1.6mn units by 2030, lifting penetration to c.35-40%. Cultural affinity, policy support, and geographic proximity strengthen the ASEAN opportunity. Chinese brands' market share has risen from below 2% in 2020 to over 11% in 2025, and could grow to c.20-30% by the end of the decade, while Japanese brands' share has declined from 78% in 2017 to 56% in 2025. BYD has been the region's largest share gainer, capturing 26% of ASEAN EV sales. Among Japanese OEMs, Toyota has emerged as the clear winner and remains well positioned to sustain its leadership. We maintain a cautious outlook for the sector overall; we rate BYD, Xiaomi, Geely and Toyota Outperform, and rate Nissan, Subaru and Mazda Underperform.