美银美林发布阿里巴巴9月季度前瞻报告，维持"买入"评级，并将目标价由175美元上调至178美元（港股175港元）。预计9月季度营收同比增长10%，与市场预期一致；集团合并调整后EBITA达人民币300亿元，高于市场预期的260亿元及上季度的270亿元，主要受益于云计算/AI与电商盈利能力改善。预计云业务增速由45%加快至52%，外部客户需求增长近55%，利润率由11.6%升至12.9%；训练效率提升有望使AI实验室及应用亏损由140亿元收窄至110亿元，预计云业务调整后EBITA自12月季度起可覆盖AI亏损。电商方面，预计CMR同比下降5%，但合并电商调整后EBITA同比增长2%，其中快商务(QC)亏损由98亿元小幅收窄至96亿元。
We forecast Sep Q revenue growth of 10% YoY, in line with consensus, and Group consolidated adjusted EBITA of RMB30bn, vs. consensus of RMB26bn and RMB27bn last quarter, driven by improving cloud/AI and e-commerce profitability. We expect cloud growth to accelerate to 52% YoY from 45% last quarter, with external customer demand up nearly 55%, while margins expand to 12.9% from 11.6%. Better training efficiency should narrow AI labs/application losses to RMB11bn from RMB14bn. We expect cloud adjusted EBITA to cover AI losses from Dec Q, taking combined cloud/AI to breakeven in 2HFY27, easing investors' AI ROI and funding concerns. We forecast Sep Q CMR down 5% YoY, reflecting continued consumer spending weakness, yet we forecast consolidated e-commerce adjusted EBITA growth of 2% YoY, with QC losses narrowing to RMB9.6bn from RMB9.8bn. We raise earnings estimates by 3-9% on stronger cloud momentum and efficiency gains across businesses, and lift PO to US$178/HK$175, reiterate Buy.