报告指出，进入2026年中国汽车出口势头强劲，中国品牌在多个海外关键市场跻身前列，海外扩张正成为中国整车厂的首要战略方向之一，既是增量增长驱动，也有助于缓解国内需求疲软，且多数情况下海外盈利水平更优。报告以欧洲市场为例，更新了对当地市场空间、市场份额及欧洲业务隐含估值的看法：预计欧洲乘用车销量温和增长，行业整体规模保持稳定；中国车企份额凭借新能源车型投放增加与销售渠道扩张大幅提升，并有望继续上行，其中比亚迪与零跑领先；欧洲单车售价较中国存在明显溢价。估值方面，比亚迪的欧洲扩张已部分反映在股价中，而零跑的欧洲业务尚未被充分定价。报告维持对比亚迪A股/H股及零跑的「买入」评级，目标价基于DCF估值；主要风险包括电动车竞争加剧、海外扩张不及预期、国内需求疲软、原材料成本压力、与Stellantis合作的不确定性以及海外扩张相关的关税等政策风险。
Going into 2026, we notice a strong export momentum in China's auto space, with Chinese brands moving into top ranks in key overseas countries. Overseas expansion is becoming one of top priorities for Chinese OEMs as an additional growth driver to mitigate domestic weak demand with better profitability in many cases. In this note, we take Europe as an example, providing our updated view on TAM, market share and implied valuation from Europe business for key players. Stable market: we expect passenger car sales volume to moderately increase in Europe, with stable pricing keeping the industry TAM broadly flat. Share gain by Chinese players: Chinese auto players have gained share in Europe mainly driven by increasing NEV model launches and expanding sales channels, and we expect them to take further share by 2035, led by BYD and Leapmotor. Implied Europe business valuation: BYD's Europe expansion appears to be priced in, while Leapmotor's Europe business is nearly not priced-in yet due to