Glencore Plc (GLC.AX): Tapping Into Australia; Initiate at Buy

We initiate on Glencore's ASX CDI (GLC.AX) with a Buy rating and A$13.40/sh price target, in-line with our existing coverage of the London listing. We see risk/reward as attractive, due to: 1) Marketing performing well, 2) commodity basket price performance surprising to upside, 3) catalyst filled de-risking of copper growth pipeline (key for re-rating) over the next 12-24mths, 4) material disposals (Orion/DRC, Kazzinc, Bunge shares) progressing, and 5) cash returns to step up in 2H and 2027 with FCF benefitting from higher prices, volumes, and disposals. Key risks include commodity prices, approvals/permitting, and marketing performance. Our PT is set at 6x NTM EV/EBITDA, above the 10yr average but at a more modest premium than BHP and RIO. Copper: UBSe copper to lift from ~32% of FY26E EBITDA to >50% by FY30E as the mostly brownfield pipeline ramps up;