在公司层面首次覆盖 AXT 并给予买入评级：一家重要的化合物半导体材料企业

We expect the global indium phosphide (InP) substrate market to enjoy favorable demand from the optical communication industry, driven by accelerated adoption of NPO, CPO and high-end transceivers. Despite concerns about oversupply (predominantly from newcomers in China), we believe the high-end InP market will continue to be dominated by three major companies: AXT (AXTI US, Buy), Sumitomo Electric (5802 JP, Buy), and JX Advanced Metal (5016 JP, Buy). We expect global datacom InP substrate supply (3-Inch equivalent) to clock a 70% CAGR over FY26-28F, and bake in a supply gap of 7% for FY28F in optical lasers, which we expect to record 79% CAGR in the same period. We initiate coverage of AXT, a dominant global manufacturer of compound semiconductor materials (InP, GaAs, Ge), with a Buy rating and DCF-based TP of USD90, considering its strong position in the global AIDC market. Our estimates for AXT pencil in FY26-28F revenue/earnings CAGRs of 105%/185%. The TP assumes a WACC of 14.8% an