Commodity Market Positioning & Flows: OI and positioning hover near record highs

The estimated value of open interest across tracked commodity markets remained broadly flat WoW at $2.1 trillion, still hovering around record highs, in the week ending 18 September. The estimated value of net investor positioning aggregated across global commodity futures markets declined by 1.7% WoW (-$4.6bn) to $268bn, largely driven by metals markets, as net length in both precious and base metals fell by $4bn each, led by gold and copper. Net length in energy markets rose $2.6bn WoW, and agri positioning increased $0.6bn. JPM QDS projections indicate positioning across commodity markets increasing by $0.8bn, driven by gold (+$2.8bn) and copper (+$1.4bn), partly offset by crude oil (-$2.8bn). Energy OI was broadly flat at $974bn; natural gas OI declined 2% to $247bn; precious metals OI rose 3% to $314bn, though recent ETF additions since mid-July look top-heavy with potentially over 90 tonnes loss-making at prices at or below $4,350/oz; base metals OI fell 1% to $238bn;