Americas Clean Technology: Solar: 3Q26 residential solar update call with Ohm Analytics

We hosted a quarterly call with Chris Collins, Founder of Ohm Analytics, and Rohan Humphrey, VP of Research & Analytics, to discuss residential demand trends into year-end, TPO and prepaid lease financing dynamics, inverter and storage market share developments, and improving C&I activity. Residential demand softens into year-end; full year outlook holds. Ohm points to a weaker 4Q26 exit rate, with originations flat to modestly down from June through August and August sales down ~40% yoy. Ohm reduced its 4Q26 final interconnection forecast to ~3% qoq growth vs 11% prior, implying a ~39% yoy decline. Still, Ohm's full year residential outlook remains broadly unchanged at ~(-23%) yoy, with 3.6GW forecast for 2026 and 3.9GW for 2027, assuming a 6.25% interest rate. TPO remains concentrated (Lightreach and RUN ~85% of the TPO market), though financing options are improving with Enfin becoming more active. Inverter shares stabilize as product cycles become the next catalyst, leaving SEDG, E