General Motors: Takeaways from CFO Meetings and Fireside Chat at the JPM U.S. All Stars Conference

We hosted GM EVP and CFO Paul Jacobson for a fireside chat at the J.P. Morgan U.S. All Stars Conference in London. Management reiterated that GM remains on track to hit 2026 guidance, with observed consumer behavior continuing to outpace weak sentiment indicators, and continues to view a low-16 mn US SAAR as a reasonable baseline. EBIT should improve y/y into 2027, supported by continued EV loss reduction (~$1-1.5 bn expected in 2026), warranty cost normalization (~$1-1.5 bn in 2026), the next-generation full-size truck launch and double-digit digital revenue growth, partly offset by commodities, logistics and DRAM (~$1.5-2 bn headwind in 2026). GM manages on a price x volume basis rather than chasing share, with incentives ~150-250bps below the industry average. Deferred digital revenue should approach ~$7.5 bn by year-end 2026 with ~$3 bn recognized during the year. GM Defense expects ~$700 mn of 2026 revenue, targeting ~30% y/y growth. Adjusted automotive FCF guidance for 2026 remai