美国消费策略：如何应对中期选举扰动与霍尔木兹阴云

Bernstein's U.S. Consumer Strategy and Quantitative Research team published a note and held a corresponding webinar on the top-down outlook for U.S. consumer sectors. The U.S. Consumer Discretionary sector has underperformed the market over the past quarter, while U.S. Consumer Staples have been more of a mixed bag but have still underperformed the broader market. This no longer appears to be about being on the opposite end of the seesaw from the tech sector, which has itself been fairly lackluster this past quarter. Instead, it may be linked to investor concerns about the outlook for the broader market given the recent increase in interest rates, uncertainty about the upcoming midterm elections, the potential trajectory for gas and commodity prices, and unpredictable global weather patterns that could arise from the "Super El Nino". There has been a very sharp convergence in P/E multiples across both sectors over the past quarter, something seen before previous market drawdowns, indic