China base metals de-stocking remains strong ahead of mid-Autumn holiday

We present our high-frequency inventory trends for base metals and iron ore in China for the week ended 25 Sep'26. Our data plots China weekly metals inventory trends, a proxy for consumption. The recent trend of significant China industrial metal drawdowns continued last week; Copper de-stocking significantly accelerated (-16kt) as China's onshore purchase premium sustained above $110/t. This can be explained by domestic purchasing ahead of the 25-27 Sept Autumn festival break, plus Golden Week in the first week of October. JPM Commodities Research state that shortages of copper concentrate imports, invoicing issues disrupting domestic scrap supply, plus smelter maintenance, could constrain China refined production in the next ~1-2 months. China's on-exchange visible copper inventory is low at 75kt, indicating potential for a very tight market. China Aluminium de-stocking remains strong (-55kt last week) and total inventory has rapidly reduced back to historic normal levels (~780kt).