Novo Nordisk: Key Takeaways from the 2026 Capital Markets Day

J.P. Morgan attended Novo Nordisk's Capital Markets Day, where the company set mid-term targets of a mid-single-digit 2026-30 revenue CAGR and broadly stable adjusted operating margins. Based on the midpoint of 2026 guidance, this implies 2030E revenue of Dkr358bn, 1% below Bloomberg consensus, and adjusted operating profit of Dkr144bn, 2% below consensus. Margin stability relies on API productivity gains and new SNAC formulations offsetting price erosion and higher depreciation from new facilities. Growth depends on the ex-US oral Wegovy rollout (over 20 markets by end-2027), the CagriSema launch (US obesity in early 2027, diabetes in 2028) and a competitive zenagamtide Phase 3 profile in 2028. REDEFINE-9 showed the lower CagriSema doses are competitive with Lilly's retatrutide and tirzepatide, though the 2.4mg dose looks inferior to Zepbound 15mg. The blood & endocrine business is targeted to grow more than 50% by 2030 from a 2026 base, driven by Frehemgo, etavopivat and zaltenibart.