Recalibrating estimates for resi solar lower as headwinds persist; ENPH remains well positioned despite risk to near-term expectations

In the wake of a weaker than anticipated resi recovery over the near-term in conjunction with ongoing macro headwinds (e.g. interest rates), we see a more subdued recovery for resi solar fundamentals into year-end with risk to expectations likely persisting into a typically seasonally-weaker 1Q27 period as well. Within the resi sector, we highlight ENPH (Buy) given its higher margin profile in conjunction with several near-term growth drivers from new product launches, though we do acknowledge the bar appears high heading into 2027. Additionally, we acknowledge the potential valuation headwind from rising interest rates on RUN (Buy), while we maintain a cautious view on SEDG (Sell). We provide more takeaways regarding resi solar data trends, potential impacts from higher interest rates, and estimate changes here within.