Gerresheimer：四季度业绩加速有支撑，2027财年变量仍不清晰，但估值依然便宜

We reiterate our Overweight rating on Gerresheimer (GXIG.F, price €31.76, PT €46.00). The reiteration of FY26 guidance implies a meaningful EBITDA step-up in Q4, with management providing a clearer bridge: seasonality, reduced inventory-reduction drag and expected year-end settlements. 9M organic adjusted EBITDA was €281m; reaching the low end of the 17-18% margin guidance requires c€110-120m in Q4 versus €103m reported in Q3. Management's confidence rests on a seasonally stronger quarter, lack of further inventory headwinds and expected customer and supplier settlements, so we think the Q4 acceleration and FY26 guidance look well-underpinned. The 2027 investment case has more moving parts: Peachtree's ramp-up and syringe growth should offer continued momentum in Medical Devices and Syringe Systems, but tubular glass still needs restructuring and better execution, and energy is a particular risk for Glass as hedging falls from roughly 80% in FY26 to below 50% in FY27. Deleveraging is o