本报告更新了高盛追踪的四组中国经济高频指标:1)消费与出行——30城新房成交环比基本持平且低于去年同期,16城二手房成交环比小幅回升并略高于去年同期,国内航班量上升、取消率下降,交通拥堵缓解但仍高于去年;9月11日国内汽油、柴油价格分别上调260元/吨和250元/吨,硫酸价格小幅回落、甲醇价格微升,Morning Consult消费者信心指数反弹,8月大城市租金收益率小幅上行而30年期国债收益率下行。2)生产与投资——8月70城二手住宅价格继续小幅下跌,钢材需求与产量环比基本持平,沿海省份日耗煤稳定但低于去年,年初至今地方政府专项债发行3.14万亿元、低于去年同期,政府债券发行8.41万亿元、约为全年额度的71%。3)其他宏观活动——港口集装箱吞吐量回升,20大港口离港船舶货运量进一步上升,油品需求预测升至1670万桶/日,可观测到港原油库存下降。
In this note, we update four sets of high-frequency indicators that we track: 1) consumption and mobility; 2) production and investment; 3) other macro activity; and 4) markets and policy. To track closely the impact of higher energy price supply shock on Chinese economic activity, we now publish our tracker on a weekly basis. Key readings: 30-city daily primary-market property transaction volume was largely flat over the last week and below year-ago level, while 16-city secondary-market volume edged up and remained slightly above year-ago level; passenger flights for domestic routes rose and the cancellation rate declined; traffic congestion declined but stayed above year-ago levels; domestic gasoline and diesel prices were raised by RMB260/tonne and RMB250/tonne on Sep 11; the Morning Consult consumer confidence index rebounded; NBS 70-city secondary home prices continued to edge down in August; steel demand and production were largely flat;