摩根大通亚洲前沿周报聚焦巴基斯坦与越南10月通胀及能源价格动态。巴基斯坦整体通胀由9月的10.3%回落至9.6%，食品与住房价格走软、电费下调是主因，城市核心通胀降至7.8%；住房与公用事业通胀从12.4%降至11%，拉低整体通胀约0.3个百分点，但液化烃通胀飙升至69%，创四年多新高，此前巴基斯坦与伊朗边境关闭，导致液化石油气短缺。交通通胀升至28.6%，11月初数据显示汽油较10月均价下跌8.9%、柴油下跌3.7%，政府临时调整定价公式，并由炼厂让渡部分利润。摩根大通将全年平均通胀预测从9.2%下调至9.0%，预计到2027年6月回落至6.9%，重返5%至7%目标区间上沿。越南10月整体通胀持平于5.1%，低于市场预期，食品价格环比下跌抵消燃油上涨；制造业表现强劲，但动能趋弱，贸易顺差创纪录，美国301调查结果或于11月落地。
Inflation in Pakistan and Vietnam eased in October, driven by food prices, with no evidence of an El Niño impact so far. Pakistan's headline annual inflation slowed to 9.6% in October from 10.3% in September, driven by softer food and housing prices and lower electricity costs; urban core inflation eased to 7.8%. Housing and utilities inflation decelerated to 11% from 12.4%, reducing headline inflation by around 0.3pp, while liquefied hydrocarbons inflation surged to 69%, its highest level in more than four years, as Pakistan is reportedly facing an LPG shortage following the closure of its border with Iran. Transport inflation edged up to 28.6%. Fuel prices as of November 5 point to declines of 8.9% for gasoline and 3.7% for diesel relative to their October averages. We lower our average annual inflation forecast to 9.0% from 9.2% previously and project inflation to ease gradually to 6.9% by June 2027. Vietnam's annual headline inflation was broadly steady at 5.1% in October, below co