高盛点评中国10月通胀数据:CPI同比涨幅由9月的0.9%小幅回落至0.7%,主要受食品价格走低与基数偏高影响;环比(季调折年)由0.7%微升至0.8%。食品价格同比由-1.7%降至-2.9%,其中猪肉下跌8.6%、鲜菜下跌16.9%、鲜果下跌3.8%。非食品CPI同比持平于1.5%,燃油价格同比上涨20.2%基本抵消了金价回落的影响,交通服务与通信设备价格分别上涨5.3%和16.1%。核心CPI同比由1.0%降至0.8%,主要反映金价走弱。PPI同比由5.0%升至5.7%,高于市场预期的5.3%,主要受能源类商品与化工品价格推动,上游行业对PPI同比的拉动较9月提高0.7个百分点;生产资料PPI同比升至7.4%,生活资料PPI持平于-0.1%。
China's headline CPI inflation edged down to 0.7% yoy in October from +0.9% yoy in September, mainly on lower food prices and a higher base. In month-on-month terms, headline CPI inflation edged up to +0.8% (annualized, seasonally adjusted). Food inflation fell to -2.9% yoy from -1.7% yoy, with pork prices down 8.6% yoy, fresh vegetable prices down 16.9% yoy and fresh fruit prices down 3.8% yoy. Non-food CPI inflation remained largely flat at +1.5% yoy, as higher vehicle fuel prices (+20.2% yoy) largely offset lower gold prices, while transportation services rose 5.3% yoy and telecom equipment 16.1% yoy. Core CPI inflation edged down to 0.8% yoy from +1.0% yoy, mainly reflecting softer gold prices. Headline PPI inflation rose to +5.7% yoy from +5.0% yoy, above Bloomberg consensus of +5.3%, mainly due to higher prices for energy goods and chemicals; the contribution of upstream sectors increased by +0.7pp. Producer goods PPI rose to +7.4% yoy while consumer goods PPI stayed roughly flat