Moderna Inc. (MRNA): Oncology momentum builds as we look to intismeran data in RCC in late-26/early-2027

MRNA reported 3Q revenue of $1,313mn, above GSe/Factset consensus of $871mn/$890mn, and GAAP EPS of $0.38 (above GSe/consensus of ($1.22)/($1.10)), driven by higher COVID vaccine sales in the US and expansion OUS, and lighter OpEx, and raised FY26 revenue guidance to 15-25% YoY growth, versus up to 10% prior (GSe new 25%), highlighting healthy demand for respiratory vaccines in the US. The focus centers on expectations for the first interim analysis from the Phase 2 study of MRK-partnered intismeran in renal cell carcinoma (RCC) in late-2026/early-2027, where management expressed optimism given: 1) RCC sensitivity to Keytruda, establishing mechanistic readthrough, 2) the Phase 2 intismeran study in melanoma demonstrated equivalent efficacy in tumor-mutational burden (TMB)-low patients, providing positive readthrough to the low-TMB RCC setting, 3) noting MRNA/MRK could engage the FDA for regulatory approval dependent on the data. The RCC data is a binary event, where shares would trade