TKO Group: UFC audience growth is still the main event

TKO Group: UFC audience growth is still the main event. UFC engagement continues to grow at an attractive pace, and in our view that is what matters most in TKO’s 3Q26 results, where management raised the high-end of FY26 EBITDA guidance by $10M. UFC revenue rose ~60% Y/Y in the quarter, live & hospitality nearly 2x’d, and every non-Apex event sold out (7 arenas in 5 countries). UFC 329 drew a streaming audience of ~16M and pulled the highest-ever gate at $26M. Despite Conor McGregor’s costly return, UFC EBITDA outpaced revenue at 70%+ Y/Y growth. This reach & profitability remains in our view a strong indicator of the monetization potential of the sport in FY27 and beyond, and we remain laser-focused on the February guide & Q1 investor day. We see FIP expansion as a key driver of UFC profitability in 2027. With fighter-pay increases now fully in the 2026 cost base, we continue to expect incremental growth next year to drop through to EBITDA at a 90%+ rate. We remain constructive on pa