Fresenius Medical Care AG: Earnings concerns. Downgrade to Underweight.

We downgrade FMC to UW (from EW) on the back of increasing concerns over the earnings outlook driven by reimbursement pressures, volume growth and inflation. We see meaningful downside risk to MT targets, forecasting -3% EBIT CAGR 25-28E, vs. +3 to +7% guide. FRE selldown remains a risk. We expect 2027E to offer little-to-no volume growth in the US, see inflation pressure in the clinic relative to reimbursement, margin pressure in Care Enablement from inflation, and TDAPA headwinds now eating into the underlying pharmaceutical business. Combined, we see risk to the mid-term targets and forecast a -3% adj EBIT CAGR 2025-28E vs. a +3 to +7% guide and sit -9% below most recent consensus adj EBIT for 2027, and -11% below for 2028E. We downgrade FMC to Underweight (from Equal Weight) and reduce our PT from EUR 44.50 to EUR 35. We lower our adj EBIT estimates by ~15-17% in 2027E and 2028E and now use a multiples-based valuation approach, applying a 45% discount to the sector, using a blended