HSBC Holdings PLc (HSBA.L) 3Q26 - Small Revenue Miss, PBT In-Line, Targets Unchanged, Capital Mixed

Citi reviews HSBC's 3Q26 results: underlying PBT (excl. notable items) of US$10.0bn was in line with company-collected consensus. Revenues missed by 2%, driven by both NII (2% miss, or 1% after adjusting for one-offs) and non-NII (1% miss), while costs were in line and impairments 21% lighter. Reported PBT of US$9.6bn was 1% shy of consensus. CET1R of 13.9% was 20bps below consensus on OCI moves, and the new US$1.0bn buyback was in line. FY26 and medium-term targets are unchanged: banking NII above US$46bn, adjusted cost growth of 1% and loan loss ratio of ~45bps for FY26; revenue growth of 5% by 2028, RoTE of 17% or better over 2026-28 and CET1 of 14.0-14.5% with 50% dividend payout. Guidance looks overly conservative, with YTD RoTE already at 18.8% (18.2% in 3Q26), well ahead of medium-term guidance of >17%. Overall a mixed set of results. Neutral rating maintained, target price 1,640p, implying 20.1% expected share price return and 25.5% expected total return.