China Alternative Energy Equipment & Services: Industry Expert Guides Conservative PRC New ESS Installations in 2027E if No New Stimulus Policy

Citi hosted an investor call discussing China's energy storage system ('ESS') industry with expert Mr. Xu GuoXin today. He forecasted PRC ESS installations to be 200GWh (+6% yoy) in 2026E and 240GWh (up 20% yoy) in 2027E (contingent on policy support). Without new policy, the 2027E figure would be 150-160GWh (down 20-25% yoy). Since no evidence of new policy has emerged so far, we are uncertain if there will be new policy. The new installations in 2027E, based on expert guidance, looks more conservative than our previous expectation. The expert also guided PRC ESS market prices to drop around 10% yoy from Rmb0.52-0.55/Wh in 2026E to Rmb0.47/Wh in 2027E, expecting more ample barrier supply next year. The lower than expected ESS installations in 2027E could be negative to ESS suppliers. But we keep our Buy rating on Sieyuan with only 13% 1H26 revenue from ESS sales.