Ajinomoto (2802): Forge Biologics visit: To start commercial production from FY2027, CDMO could become second growth driver

We visited Forge Biologics (US), which handles Ajinomoto's gene therapy CDMO business, on October 13. Forge was established in 2020 and acquired by Ajinomoto in 2023. Projects are steadily increasing, and Forge is on track to achieve positive EBITDA in FY2026 and start commercial production in FY2027. We take a positive view of Forge transitioning to a phase of full-fledged profit growth. Given that Forge has a relatively asset-light business, we anticipate high capital efficiency in addition to high growth and earnings. Forge's AAV yield is well above the industry average, supported by its production expertise and Ajinomoto's culture media and supplement technologies, while Ajinomoto's financial backing and purchasing power further strengthen competitiveness. The market currently focuses on the semiconductor material ABF due to growing AI demand, but we believe the CDMO business is set to increase its presence as a second growth driver after ABF, helped by the start of commercial proj