华泰证券点评2026年9月中国财政数据：9月广义财政收入同比由8月的+2.9%转负至-3.5%，一般公共预算收入同比-0.1%，税收收入增速放缓至0.2%；其中中央财政收入+0.9%、地方财政收入-5.8%。增值税受工业品价格回升及出口、生产韧性支撑回升至7.0%，企业所得税与个人所得税增速分别降至1.0%和10.7%，消费税降幅收窄至8.2%。受"8·28"存量房政策影响，9月政府性基金收入同比-15.9%，国有土地使用权出让收入-23.2%，五项房地产相关税收合计-14.8%。支出端9月广义财政支出同比-3.7%，剔除专项债及注资特别国债后同比/环比为-2.6%/-2.9%；前三季度累计支出同比-3.5%，一般公共预算支出进度70%，低于五年同期均值71.1%。前三季度新增国债与地方专项债合计8.15万亿元，同比少增4312亿元，发行进度75.6%落后于去年同期的81.3%。
In September, broad-based fiscal revenue growth turned negative, while fiscal spending continued to record negative growth. Broad-based fiscal revenue growth fell to -3.5% YoY from 2.9% in August, with general public budget revenue growth at -0.1% and tax revenue growth slowing to 0.2%. Corporate and personal income tax growth moderated to 1.0%/10.7%, while resilient exports, production and rising prices drove VAT growth up to 7.0% and the decline in consumption tax narrowed to 8.2%. Following the "8·28" existing-home sales policy, government-managed fund revenue fell 15.9% YoY and state-owned land use right sale revenue fell 23.2% YoY, with the five property-related taxes down 14.8%. On the spending side, broad-based fiscal spending fell 3.7% YoY in September (-2.6%/-2.9% YoY/MoM on an adjusted basis), and 9M26 cumulative spending fell 3.5% YoY, below the 4.6% budget target, with budget execution at 70% versus the five-year average of 71.1%. New central government bonds and local spec