本报告为高盛中国经济团队对中国近期三项宏观动态的简要梳理。其一，9月贸易数据强于预期，进出口同比增速均显著高于市场一致预期，其中半导体进出口大幅攀升，但增幅几乎完全由价格上涨推动，当月贸易顺差创历史新高。其二，通胀走势分化：PPI同比涨幅超预期上行，而CPI涨幅略低于预期，凸显上游大宗商品涨价向消费端传导困难，进一步印证内需偏弱；高盛据此上调2026/27年PPI预测、下调CPI预测。其三，国家统计局即将公布9月工业增加值、固定资产投资、社会消费品零售及三季度GDP数据，高盛预计工业生产增长较为强劲、社零维持疲弱、固定资产投资单月增速在天气改善与政策发力支撑下有所回升，实际GDP增速较二季度小幅加快。报告属宏观数据点评，未提出具体行业配置或个股投资建议。
This note presents three quick highlights from China. First, September trade data beat expectations, with exports and imports accelerating well above consensus in nominal USD terms; semiconductor exports and imports surged but the gains were driven almost entirely by higher prices, and the monthly trade surplus reached a record high. Second, inflation diverged: PPI inflation surprised to the upside while CPI inflation came in slightly below market expectations, highlighting the difficulty of passing higher commodity and upstream prices on to consumers and providing further evidence of weak domestic demand; GS raised its 2026/27 PPI forecasts and cut its CPI forecasts. Third, ahead of the NBS release of September industrial production, FAI, retail sales and Q3 GDP, GS expects strong IP growth, weak retail sales and a single-month pickup in FAI supported by better weather and a stronger policy push, with real GDP growth edging up from Q2 on stronger industrial production.