Nickel Industries：穿越短期逆风的韧性

J.P. Morgan Asia Pacific Credit Research maintains an Overweight on Nickel Industries (NIC) USD bonds, preferring the NICAU '30s (98.6 offer, z+505bps, 9.5% ytw), and views bond volatility as a potential source of attractive entry opportunities. Although macro uncertainty, near-term operational disruptions and regulatory overhangs have weighed on the bonds, the company's medium- to long-term trajectory remains intact, with earnings exceeding estimates this year even without any contribution from ENC. On supply, Indonesia's ore-quota (RKAB) restrictions, weather disruptions, Tsingshan's power reallocation to aluminum and financial pressure at GNI are expected to cut Indonesia's refined nickel output by about 4.2% y/y, the first decline since 2015, supporting LME nickel at around US$17,000/mt in early 2027. Water-related cuts at HNI, RNI and ONI are expected to drag 4Q26 mining and RKEF adjusted EBITDA down ~24% q/q to ~US$87mn, before recovering to ~US$100-105mn per quarter in 1H27;