China: Q3 GDP and Sep activity data preview: Expecting industrial production growth to accelerate and retail sales to stay subdued

China's September activity data — including industrial production (IP), fixed asset investment (FAI), and retail sales — will be released next Monday (19 October), together with Q3 GDP. We expect IP growth to rise further to 5.8% yoy in September from 5.2% yoy in August, reflecting much stronger export growth and broad-based improvement in manufacturing PMIs. We expect the year-on-year contraction in FAI to narrow to -8.0% in September from -10.8% in August on a single-month basis, thanks to more favorable weather and a low base. This would leave year-to-date FAI growth at -7.3% yoy in September (vs. -7.2% yoy in August). We expect retail sales growth to edge down to +0.3% yoy in September from +0.4% yoy in August, due mainly to weaker year-on-year growth in auto and home appliance sales. We maintain our forecast for subdued real GDP growth of 4.4% yoy in Q3, although we see risks slightly skewed to the downside. Overall, our forecasts are above market consensus for September IP, broad