上周美联储加息25个基点，美债收益率曲线随之趋平，10年期与2年期利差从会议前的34个基点降至20个基点。市场认识到美联储将认真对待通胀风险、不受政治或财政主导，这支持了我们近期看多美元的观点，尽管去美元化叙事喧嚣。但欧元、英镑、澳元等主要对手货币的利率支撑仍足以暂时阻止美元快速升值，维持三季度末欧元兑美元1.1500、澳元兑美元0.7100的目标不变；预计四季度美国增长优势将推动分化，美元走强，维持2026年底欧元兑美元1.1200目标。日本央行上周仅加息25个基点令日元多头失望，日元料重回弱势，干预风险是其主要支撑。本周聚焦瑞士、澳大利亚、瑞典与挪威央行决议：瑞士央行年底前加息概率高于市场定价，我们通过12月14日到期、0.9350看跌/0.8980 RKO做空欧元兑瑞郎；挪威央行料加息，瑞典央行料按兵不动，下周澳联储料加息但澳元下行风险有限。
Last week's Fed decision to hike by 25bp has also been accompanied by a flattening in the US Treasury curve, with the 10-2yr spread dropping from 34bp the day before the meeting to 20bp now. The main factor for us is the market's newfound understanding that the Fed will indeed take inflation risks seriously and is not subject to political or fiscal dominance. This supports our decision to take a constructive USD view in recent weeks despite the clamour surrounding de-dollarization narratives. Still, our view that rates support for key rivals such as EUR, GBP and AUD is significant enough for now to prevent very rapid greenback gains is intact, and we have left our end-Q3 targets in EURUSD and AUDUSD unchanged at 1.1500 and 0.7100 respectively. But for Q4 we expect the US's growth advantage to drive divergence and see the greenback strengthening, keeping our end-2026 EURUSD target at 1.1200. The JPY should now revert to underperformance after the BoJ disappointed the most hawkish expect