本报告分析人工智能对中国宏观经济的影响，认为AI正成为中国经济增长支柱，但其推动主要来自出口而非投资。报告估算，若无AI相关顺风，今年中国GDP增速将跌破4%；AI有望为2026年GDP增速贡献约0.8个百分点、2027年约0.5个百分点。AI相关投资2026年或达9600亿元人民币，2027年升至1.25万亿元人民币，但对总投资占比不足2%，经剔除进口芯片、设备与土地后，对2026年GDP增速贡献约0.3个百分点。出口是更重要的增长渠道：2026年年初至今中国AI相关出口同比增长52%，占总出口的23%，贡献近10个百分点的出口增长，约占出口总增量的51%，预计2026年拉动GDP约0.5个百分点。报告指出，AI尚不足以创造足够就业：数据中心建设高度工业化，无法抵消地产下行带来的建筑就业流失，制造业与服务业AI应用主要提升效率、减少用工；
AI is becoming a growth pillar for China, led by exports not investment. Without AI-related tailwinds, GDP growth would fall below 4%. We think the most reflationary phase of China's AI-related infrastructure and power buildout is likely behind us, and examine the implications for FX and rates. We estimate AI could add around 0.8ppt to GDP growth in 2026 and 0.5ppt in 2027. AI-related investment will likely reach CNY960bn in 2026 and CNY1.25tn in 2027, but accounts for less than 2% of China's total investment and could contribute roughly 0.3ppt to annual GDP growth in 2026. Exports are the more important channel: in 2026, China's AI-related exports grew 52% y/y YTD, accounting for 23% of total exports and contributing nearly 10pp to overall export growth (51% of total export growth), potentially adding around 0.5ppt to GDP growth in 2026 and 0.3ppt in 2027. AI is not creating enough jobs yet: data-center expansion is highly industrialized, too small to offset property-related construct