SpaceX: Update and raise target to $268 - Terrestrial AI build and enterprise broadband add to Orbital AI thesis; Outperform

Bernstein raises its SpaceX price target to $268 from $248 and maintains an Outperform rating. The revision is driven mainly by a faster terrestrial AI compute buildout and stronger-than-expected Enterprise & Government connectivity, reinforcing the orbital data center thesis. Management guides to 2.5-3GW of compute by end-2026 and at least 13GW by end-2027, and indicates pricing above the prior $30-50/watt range. Bernstein now assumes 2.8GW, 12.8GW and 20.1GW of terrestrial capacity at end-2026/2027/2028, capex of roughly $35bn per GW, and raises 2027 average compute pricing to $26/watt, while cutting the AI multiple to 17x from 21x on peer de-rating; 2031 revenue is lifted to $784bn. Q3 revenue of $14.58bn and adjusted EPS of $0.35 both beat consensus, with Connectivity operating margin of 45%. Flight 15 targets the first dual-stage catch, with full reusability the key to orbital data centers, whose first launch is slated for late 2027 and operations from mid-2028.