Air Products: Mapping the future project growth potential

This report is the final part in a series examining the earnings contribution from announced projects across global industrial gases (see Linde and Air Liquide). We finish the series with Air Products (APD). The analysis in this report makes us even more confident in APD's ability to deliver compounding +HSD EPS growth, with our FY29 and FY30 Adj. EPS estimates now +9% and +18% ahead of Visible Alpha consensus, respectively. We think it is unlikely that NEOM and the underperforming projects will be negative enough to derail the story. We reiterate our Outperform rating. We see a ~$3.0bn backlog at Air Products excluding space and the underperforming projects. We estimate this backlog is 90% Electronics, of which much is driven by the Samsung contract (40% of the backlog). We see EPS growth contribution from the APD backlog definition (including space) as +3.5% p.a. on average 2027-2030. Alongside price and productivity, we think APD can comfortably deliver their +HSD EPS growth targets