摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强团队的中国宏观展望指出，中国经济呈"双速"特征：出口保持韧性，但投资与消费疲弱，GDP增速承压；通胀虽改善但再通胀范围狭窄。报告认为亚洲正进入2000年代中期以来最强的工业超级周期，AI仅为其中一部分，AI主权将强化相关资本开支，中国全球出口份额预计2030年升至16.5%，但资本密集化与产能过剩使外需向国内需求的溢出效应弱化。政策总体支持但不急于强刺激，短期优先加快约2万亿元财政及准财政脉冲落地，基调仍偏供给侧。报告提出"中国工业5.0"，预计未来十年解锁约12万亿美元额外工业资本开支（2026—35年累计约80万亿元），推动2026—27、2028—30、2031—35年实际GDP复合增速分别达约4.6%、4.3%和3.9%；2035年全球制造业份额基准30%、乐观33%、悲观27%。
China's economy is two-speed: resilient exports alongside weak investment and consumption, with subdued GDP growth and better but narrow reflation. Asia is likely to enter its strongest industrial super cycle since the mid-2000s, with AI only part of the story as AI sovereignty reinforces AI capex. China's global export market share is expected to rise to 16.5% by 2030, though greater capital intensity and lingering excess capacity may dampen spillovers to domestic demand. Policy remains supportive but there is no rush to stimulate: the near-term priority is faster deployment of roughly Rmb2trn of fiscal and quasi-fiscal impulse, with a continued supply-centric focus. The report introduces "China Industry 5.0", which could unlock about US$12trn of additional industrial capex over the next decade (cumulative ~Rmb80trn in 2026-35E), lifting real GDP CAGR to about 4.6%, 4.3% and 3.9% in 2026-27E, 2028-30E and 2031-35E respectively, and raising China's share of global manufacturing GDP to