Walt Disney Co (DIS.N): Deconstructing FY27 Guidance

Disney will report 4Q26 earnings on November 17th. The company has guided to double-digit Adj EPS growth in FY27, excluding the impact of the 53rd week. We have updated our segment bridges and believe: 1) Street EBIT estimates may be ~3% too low and 2) Disney should easily achieve FY27 Adj EPS guidance. We maintain our Buy rating and raise our price target to $140, akin to 18x FY27 Adj EPS. For FY27, management guided to double-digit Adj EPS growth excluding the impact of the 53rd week; assuming growth of 10% to 15%, this is akin to $7.31 to $7.64 of FY27 Adj EPS, or a range of $20.1 billion to $20.9 billion of segment EBIT. To achieve Street estimates of $20.7 billion, Disney must grow segment EBIT by 6% in 2027. We have updated our bridges to include all disclosures (hurricanes, black-outs, cruise launch costs, tariff refunds) and our estimate of non-disclosed items (CFP rights costs, theatrical releases, Super Bowl, political ads). We believe Street segment EBIT estimates are conser