TE Connectivity Plc. Expecting modest F4Q beat; AI-led upside intact, auto backdrop remains challenging

We reiterate our Buy rating on TE Connectivity with a $290 price objective. We expect F4Q revenue/EPS of $5.30bn/$3.08, slightly ahead of Street at $5.27bn/$3.06 and guidance of $5.25bn/$3.05; TE has historically exceeded F4Q revenue guidance by ~2% on average over the last five years, and we see room for upside as high as $5.4bn from continued AI and Energy strength. For F1Q we model revenue of $5.12bn (-3% q/q), in line with Street and the typical seasonal decline, with operating margin of 22.6% and EPS of $3.05. Durability of DDN growth into F27 is the key focus for earnings, supported by continued program wins across custom accelerator and GPU platforms, while softer auto production and modest near-term content growth limit Transportation upside. We raise F27E revenue/EPS to $21.2bn/$12.67; our PO of $290 is based on 23x our C2027E EPS of $12.90.