China Aluminum: What's New at 2026 China Materials Tour: Meeting with SMM Aluminum Expert

Citi hosted the 2026 China Materials Tour on 5 November and met with SMM aluminum expert Mr. Liu Xiaolei. SMM expects the global aluminum market to swing to a surplus of about 2.0mnt in 2027E from a 0.7mnt shortage in 2026E, pressuring prices. China's average aluminum price could fall to Rmb21-22k/t in 2027E, though the capacity cap should keep Chinese prices stronger than overseas. China aluminum output is forecast at 45.47mnt/45.83mnt in 2026/27E (+2.0%/+0.8% YoY), while overseas output is seen at 29.36mnt/33.30mnt (-2.7%/+13.4%), with growth driven by Middle East production resumption, new capacity in Southeast Asia and strong spot profitability. Scrap aluminum supply is expected at 10.58mnt/11.20mnt, with the reverse invoicing policy limiting supply growth in 2026E. China consumption is projected at 49.46/50.07/51.12mnt in 2026/27/28E, with semi-finished product exports of 6.2mnt/5.8mnt and aluminum articles exports of 4.2mnt/3.9mnt. The global alumina market should be largely bala