摩根大通欧元现金策略报告指出，上周德债收益率上行并跑赢美债，主要受欧元区与美国9月PMI超预期、能源市场敏感度及技术因素驱动。近端德国久期维持中性，因缺乏明确的国内利多催化；但对能承受短期波动的长期投资者而言，中期收益率仍具吸引力。鉴于9月初以来的强劲表现，建议对10年期德债相对美债的增持头寸获利了结，并计划在回调时重新介入，中期仍维持战略性增持。对欧元区内部及欧元区主权/超主权利差保持谨慎，因地缘政治与能源不确定性上升、收益率波动加剧且仓位仍偏增持；走阔压力集中于基本面/信用较弱的国别。法国利差大幅走阔是利率上行、财政小幅恶化、政治进程风险与技术面的综合结果，但市场高估了法国预算噪音带来的政治风险溢价。全球利率波动与能源价格不确定性企稳后，套息头寸或重新获得青睐。
DM rates are higher over the week since our last publication, with German yields outperforming US peers, following stronger-than-expected PMI prints, ongoing sensitivity to energy markets and technical factors. We stay neutral on Germany duration near-term given the lack of clear domestic bullish catalysts. We continue to stress that intermediate yields remain compelling for long-term investors who can tolerate near-term volatility. We take profit on OW 10Y Germany vs. US and will look to re-enter on any retracement. Stay cautious on intra-EMU/€-SSA spreads given heightened geopolitical/energy uncertainty, elevated yield volatility and OW positioning. Widening pressure in intra-EMU has been concentrated in sovereigns with weaker fundamental/credit profiles, while stronger sovereigns have remained relatively insulated. In France, the sharp widening move reflects a mix of higher rates + modest fiscal slippage + political process risk + technicals;