本报告为摩根大通全球市场策略团队对美国短期固定收益与货币市场的分析。报告指出，本周债券市场波动加剧，除2年期外整条美债收益率曲线均已升破5%，2年期收益率收于4.86%（上行12bp），主因9月PMI大超预期（综合PMI升至58.4，创2021年7月以来新高），OIS远期已计入10月加息约15bp（60%概率），并预计到2027年7月累计加息近90bp。报告梳理了纽约联储国债市场会议四大主题：贴现窗口现代化（Jefferson强调"无需解释"获取流动性、加强美联储与联邦住房贷款银行抵押品协调）、财政部是否将TGA超额现金投入回购市场（在TGCR高于IORB时更具经济性）、稳定币与代币化（若由海外增量资金驱动将增加短期美债需求，否则仅是在MMF与存款间再分配）、以及充足准备金框架。
This report by J.P. Morgan's Global Markets Strategy team analyzes the U.S. short-term fixed income and money markets. It was a volatile week for fixed income, with Treasury yields rising 12-19bp across the curve and the entire curve—excluding 2-year yields—now above 5%. The move was partly driven by another set of strong PMIs that beat expectations: composite PMI rose to 58.4, its highest since July 2021, while manufacturing PMI increased to 56.7, the highest since April 2022. The 2-year yield ended the week at 4.86% (up 12bp). OIS forwards are now pricing in about 15bp (60% probability) of an October hike, and nearly 90bp of additional hikes by July 2027. The NY Fed's Treasury Market Conference covered: (1) modernization of the discount window, with Vice Chair Jefferson emphasizing "no questions asked" access and tighter Fed–FHLB coordination to improve collateral; (2) whether Treasury should invest excess TGA cash in repo, most compelling when TGCR trades above IORB;