Travelers Cos (TRV.US): 3Q26 First Take: Healthy Financial Results, Mixed Underlying Trends

Travelers reported 3Q26 adjusted EPS of $9.18, well above J.P. Morgan's $7.44 estimate and consensus of $7.41. The headline combined ratio was 86.8% versus our 90.8% estimate, and the core combined ratio was 84.1% versus 86.1% expected, driven mainly by personal lines. Net written premiums were roughly flat and modestly above expectations, while net investment income was slightly below. Renewal pricing continues to moderate in business insurance and personal lines, and unit count trends remain challenged in auto and homeowners. The expense ratio is running at about 29%, above management's 28.5% target for the year. We maintain our Neutral rating.