NextDecade Corp (NEXT.O): 3Q26 Earnings Preview: Expecting a Few Updates This Quarter

We expect a few updates this quarter, most notably around Train 1 timing. We expect management to narrow the First LNG timeline to 1Q27 from 1H27, largely based on positive prior commentary that development is progressing ahead of schedule. We also wouldn't be surprised by a more concrete timeline for substantial completion with NEXT looking to introduce natgas to the facility in 2026. Thus, we see 3Q27 as a viable timeframe for substantial completion. We're not expecting much more forward selling despite a very constructive '27 LNG price curve, largely to mitigate the risk of being short LNG if the commissioning process is delayed. Train 6 FID commentary remains in focus, though we don't anticipate any material updates this quarter. The FERC FEIS is scheduled for June 2027 and we'd expect an update on financing in 1H27 depending on SPA progress. Maintain Buy, target price US$11.00 vs. price US$6.01, expected total return 83.0%.